A dire warning has been issued by the Department of Conservation (DOC) in New Zealand, stating that rat populations could potentially double by the year 2090 if climate change continues on its current trajectory. This alarming prediction comes as DOC seeks an additional $150 million in revenue annually to combat the growing threats to biodiversity.
Director-General Penny Nelson emphasized the urgency of the situation, explaining that the current annual expenditure of $360 million is insufficient to address the multitude of threats facing species and ecosystems, including wilding pines, goats, deer, pests, and diseases.
"Under a high-climate change scenario, our research indicates a potential doubling of rat populations by 2090," Nelson stated during scrutiny week.
According to modeling, it would require a staggering $2 billion per year to ensure the thriving of nature, but such a figure is unrealistic. As a result, DOC is forced to prioritize spending ruthlessly.
In addition to seeking commercial partnerships, such as with One NZ, which has improved mobile coverage and satellite connections for DOC rangers, the department is also exploring ways to generate more revenue.
"We will undoubtedly regress if we continue with the existing funding levels," Nelson warned.
Despite recent cost-saving measures, including a reduction of over 260 jobs in 12 months and meeting public savings targets, DOC now faces further cost pressures of over $120 million up to 2029.
"We risk not being able to deliver the same level of results as we currently do," Nelson said.
The requested $150 million would be allocated to high-priority management initiatives ($50 million) and urgent ecosystems and species that are currently unfunded ($100 million). This funding would enable significant progress in addressing these threats.
For example, combating the two million hectares of wilding pines, primarily in Marlborough, would cost $156 million over two decades. Nationally, this fight requires an annual expenditure of $30 million, but current spending is only a fraction of that amount.
"If we fail to control the spread of wilding pines, it will impact both public conservation land and primary sector land," Nelson emphasized.
Furthermore, disasters and fires are placing additional strain on funds. This year alone, eight emergencies have been declared, and the recent fire in Tongariro National Park incurred millions of dollars in costs.
Nelson called for a shift in mindset regarding nature, highlighting that economists have valued the country's natural capital at $134 billion.
"If we do not invest in nature-based assets, the landscape of New Zealand will undergo significant changes in the next 20 to 50 years. The consequences of inaction will be even more pronounced in the coming decades," she warned.
DOC plans to publish a report detailing the likely climate change impacts on the demography of ship rats, mice, hedgehogs, rabbits, hares, and wasps.
This urgent call for action serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of climate change, biodiversity loss, and the need for sustainable funding to protect our natural environment.
