Fantasy Football Week 14: Unlocking Value in Key Matchups
In the ever-evolving world of fantasy football, identifying the right matchups can be the difference between a successful season and a frustrating one. This week, we delve into some intriguing matchups that could provide value for your fantasy teams, focusing on funnel defenses and their implications.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Saints vs. Buccaneers
The Saints, known for their struggles, face a pass-funnel defense in the Buccaneers. With a neutral pass rate of 65% since Week 9, the Buccaneers have been inviting opponents to establish the pass. Tyler Shough, under center for the Saints, hasn't been a high-volume passer, but the Saints' 57% neutral pass rate with him as the starter is still a middle-of-the-pack rate. This makes Chris Olave, who has seen a significant share of the team's air yards and targets, a strong play. Devaughn Vele, fresh off an efficient outing, is also a reasonable PPR option against the pass-funnel Bucs.
Slot Receivers in the Spotlight
The Buccaneers have been generous to slot receivers, allowing the seventh-most slot receptions per game and the fifth-highest completion rate over expected on pass attempts. Juwan Johnson, who ran 67% of his routes from the slot in Week 12, profiles as a sneaky play if you're down at tight end.
Run Funnel Matchups
Commanders vs. Vikings
The Commanders, led by Chris Rodriguez, are facing a run-funnel defense in the Vikings. With a neutral run rate of 50%, the Vikings have been a challenge for opposing backs. However, the Commanders' pass-catching backs, like Terry McLaurin and Zach Ertz, could suffer if the team goes run-heavy against the Vikings, who have allowed the 11th-highest EPA per rush. Expect the Vikings to avoid the pass and attack on the ground, potentially limiting the Commanders' passing volume.
Bears vs. Packers
The Bears, known for their run-first approach, face a Packers defense that has seen opponents pass the ball at a league-low 42% rate in neutral situations. This should fuel rushing volume for D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who have been dominant in rush attempts and rush yards since Week 9. The Bears' backs might not reach 40 rush attempts, but they should push past 30, making Monangai a viable flex option in 12-team formats.
Broncos vs. Raiders
The Raiders, a run funnel in recent weeks, have faced the sixth-lowest pass rate over expected since Week 9. Their opponents have run the ball at a 50% rate in neutral situations. The Broncos, with a neutral pass rate of 60%, are shifting towards the run, which could be influenced by their previous performance against the Raiders in Week 3. RJ Harvey, the lead rusher, could see a boost in rushing volume if the Broncos establish the run early and often against the Raiders.
